Who is this model for?
This valuation model is for anyone interested in buying,
selling or managing a company. The
novice or the professional will find the model to be very robust and
flexible. The user can invest 5 minutes,
5 days or 5 months into assessing a company’s value and this model can be used
all along the way.
The buyer can determine a preliminary value of a company
before investing in site visits, interviews, reviewing of contracts and so
on. This is an ideal tool to screen
candidates for acquisition. It is also
useful to determine a ballpark offer range to gauge the seller’s interest.
For the seller, this tool will greatly enhance your
negotiating position because you will have a much better understanding of what
your business is worth. Use it to
determine an asking price. Starting off with an asking price that is too low can be very expensive to you and could even make a buyer less interested. To regain their
attention, you will need to lower your price and weaken your negotiating
position. Starting off with an asking
price that is too low can be very expensive to you. Start from an informed position. Demonstrate that you have a solid grasp on
the value of your business.
Once you get into negotiations for your company, chances are
the prospective buyer hasn’t done as much analysis as you. This model can help you convince the buyer
that your business is worth more than the price being considered. Or, you may find that the price being offered
seems more than fair. What does the
buyer see that you don’t see? Use this
model to help you figure that out.
Assess the value of your company with complete privacy. For very good reasons, you may not want
anyone to know you’re even thinking about selling your company.
For the manager interested in growing shareholder value,
this model allows for endless “what-if” analysis by adjusting any of over 200
different variables. See instantly how
affecting any of those variables changes the value of the company. The single biggest determinant of company
value is cash flows. This model will
give you a greatly enhanced understanding of what drives cash flows.
How much do business valuation services cost?
Even if you asked your accountant to value your company, she would probably charge you more for a couple hours of her time than the price of this model. The fact is, most accountants have little or no experience valuing companies. The cost of one company valuation performed by a professional in the industry can range from $400 to tens of thousands of dollars. Depending on your situation, you may still want to hire someone to assist you since there are many judgment calls that need to be made about the assumptions that feed into this model. Chances are good, though, that the professional appraiser uses a model very similar to this one. In fact, theirs may not be as good as this one. Or, they may use this one!
How accurate is this model and how does it compare to
other models?
Buying and selling companies is part art, part science. There are many differing perspectives around
the following, incomplete list of determinants of company value:
- Industry
sector
- Brand
strength
- Channel
strength
- Location
- Management
- Technology,
patents and trade secrets
- Customer
base
- Age
of business
- Owner
involvement
- Competition
- Availability
of vendor financing
- The
current economy
No model is going to be able predict the impact of each of
these. But each of them has an impact on
company cash flows, either now or later. In all probability, you understand these issues relative to the target company better than anyone and you are the best person to estimate what sales and profits will be over the next 5 years. Enter that information into this
model and you will have a valuation that is based on the most commonly used
method of valuation available today, the discounted cash flow method.
Beware of simple valuation models available on the web that
ascribe a value to your target company by comparing to market multiples of a
large database of similar companies. This shortcut method frequently has no correlation with the specifics of
your company of interest and usually the multiples used are collected over
several years and may not even include the most recent year. Just think how different the economic climate
was in 2008 vs. 2007. Does it make sense
to just average multiples over the last 10 years? Does it make sense to compare the multiples
of your gourmet, high-end restaurant to all the restaurants in the country,
including all the franchise burger businesses? Of course not. Again, these alternative valuation models can be helpful by providing
additional points of reference. But
don’t rely on them exclusively. A
thorough discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis is the one method used by
virtually all professionals, at least as a baseline valuation method. And that’s true for small businesses,
medium-sized businesses and Fortune 500 companies.
In the final analysis, you can do all the analysis you
want. But the true value of any company
is what a buyer is willing to pay at a particular point in time. This model can help you make sure that you
are either paying a price or selling at a price that is reasonable.
Do I need to hire a professional to appraise my
company?
In the beginning, no. Why spend hundreds or thousands of dollars to
find out that now is not the time to buy or sell? Get a preliminary indication of company value
with this model. In the more advanced
stages of negotiating, it may be helpful to hire a professional. But the real key to understanding company
value is knowledge of the market and the company. Will your appraiser know that better than
you? Chances are, they will be feeding information you give them into a model like this. Even so, this model does not take the place
of company visits, interviews, market studies and so on. This is only a tool for synthesizing all that
information.
I have a very small service business. Is this model applicable for my company?
Yes. Every business
has an income statement and a balance sheet. Why not invest a small amount of money for this model, enter the income
statement and balance sheet information, make some assumptions about the future
and get an instant idea of what the company is worth? At a minimum, you will learn how changes in
some of the financial variables can affect the value of your company.
If you are looking at other models available on the market,
be careful about buying one that is either too simplistic or overly complex, or
one that tries to average valuations from a dozen different methods. This model is as simple or sophisticated as
you desire.
I am a financial analyst in a Fortune 500 company that
manufactures products around the world. Our last acquisition was for a $500 million company. Is this model going to be useful for me?
Yes. The principles
used to develop this model are the very same principles taught in business
schools and used by large, acquiring companies around the world. In fact, the developer of this model valued
and led several acquisitions for a Fortune 500 company. The robustness of the valuation is determined
by how much front-end work is done on the assumptions. The power of this method of valuation is that
it allows for endless tweaking of the assumptions.
Why do I need to know the value of my company? I am not interested in selling.
Do you want to sell someday? Do you want to pass the business on to your heirs? Will you ever want to raise additional
capital through borrowing or issuing stock? How would you value that stock? There are a number of reasons why you will want to understand the value
of your company and what you can do to increase it.
This model could greatly enhance your understanding of what
drives cash flows and, therefore, company value. What happens to company value when you
increase or decrease prices? What about
when you increase or decrease inventory? If your labor rates go up 10%, how does that affect the value of your
company? Sure, you can game any of those
situations in a spreadsheet to see how it impacts your income statement,
balance sheet and even cash flows. But
financial statements are always backward-looking. You need a model to help predict company
value based on proforma information.
I do not have a strong financial background. How can I be sure I can use this?
If you have an income statement and some familiarity with
Microsoft Excel, you can use this model. You also need to be able to make some educated guesses about what the
sales of the company will be over the next 5 years. The required number of
inputs are very few.
I am an Excel novice. Can I use this model?
Yes. The inputs to this model are clearly identifiable with blue text. It is an excel spreadsheet so you can keep a copy safe and start fresh at any time. You are not creating a spreadsheet. You are using one that has been created for
you. There’s a big difference. If you find that you still need additional
help with Excel, there is plenty of help available on the internet. Or, perhaps you know someone who can assist.
I found an online valuation model that compares my
business to a database of thousands of other businesses. And it’s cheaper! Why is ValueThisCompany.com better?
Beware of simple valuation models available on the web that
ascribe a value to your company of interest by comparing to market multiples of
a large database of similar companies.This shortcut method frequently has no correlation with the specifics of
your company and usually the multiples used are collected over several years
and may not even include the most recent year. Just think how different the economic climate was in 2008 vs. 2007. Does it make sense to just average multiples
over the last 10 years? Does it make
sense to compare the multiples of your gourmet, high-end restaurant to all the
restaurants in the country, including all the franchise burger businesses? Of course not. Again, these alternative valuation models can
be helpful by providing additional points of reference. But don’t rely on them exclusively. A thorough discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, the
method used by this model, is the one method used by virtually all
professionals, at least as a baseline valuation method. And that’s true for small businesses,
medium-sized businesses and Fortune 500 companies.
I found an online valuation model that uses many
different valuation methods and then averages them. Isn’t that a better approach?
No. This is for the
person who doesn’t know which valuation method is the best. In the end, you’ll probably end up with a
value for the company that is too low. The range of values between these methods is quite large. For instance, one of the methods frequently averaged in
is the book value of the company which is often only a fraction of what the
company is actually worth. Knowing that,
why average that in and pull down the value of the company? It doesn’t make sense.
Similarly, the market multiples approach is another common
method that is averaged in. Why would
you pull down the value of your target company with data that is dated and
includes all the poorly performing companies on the market? If you are trying to buy or sell a highly
performing company, then you should be comparing the target company’s
performance against similarly performing companies. Likewise, if you are
looking for a turnaround candidate. Compare with other turnaround candidates. In this case, you are not interested in
paying the going market multiple. There
are also many dissimilarities between businesses in
any given industry. Don’t compare your
gourmet restaurant with all the sandwich shops in your defined market.
Use the most commonly used valuation method on the market,
the discounted cash flow model. For more
advanced valuations, put your time and resources into better understanding your
assumptions, not in trying to determine all the nuances among the vast array of
creative valuation techniques.
Finally, online valuation tools tend to allow you access to
their model only for a period of time. By downloading the ValueThisCompany.com model to your local computer,
you have unlimited access to it, can save your work, can save multiple scenarios
and you don’t have to be concerned with network connections and timeouts while
you’re working. We all know how frustrating it is to lose hours of work because of a technical glitch.
Doesn’t the industry I’m in matter? How does the model take this into account?
Sometimes the industry does matter. Your industry gives a preliminary indication
of risk. The higher the risk, the
greater the value of your company will be discounted. But you should not give too much weight to
this, for all the reasons explained above.
This model will ask you to select an industry. Resident in the model (hidden) is a database
of beta values which reflect the risk of companies on those markets. This value is then used to calculate the
discount rate on the assumptions page. If you don’t agree with the resultant discount rate, you may enter your
own.
Does it matter in what country the company is located?
It certainly matters when it comes to what someone will pay
for the company. But it does not matter
relative to determining the present value of all future cash flows, i.e., the
value of the company. Conditions in the
location country should be taken into account when assessing the assumptions
that go into this model. The model is
only a tool for synthesizing your assumptions and determining a value.
I’m having a technical problem with the model. How do I get help?
Click on the “Feedback” link and submit your question. Someone will respond to you as soon as
possible. Note that we will only respond
to questions regarding the model itself. All feedback relative to improving the model is appreciated and will be
taken into consideration. Your purchase
gives you a period of time during which you may download the model multiple
times. Check for newer revisions of the
model from time to time.